We just got back from The Real Estate Guys Investor Summit with Robert Helms and Russell Gray. What an amazing crowd of investors and speakers! You can’t help but come away with an enhanced clarity of our macro economy as well as ideas on how to invest wisely in that climate. Below are some of the notable speakers and some highlighted topics from their discussions. There were a few common themes across multiple speakers.
Danielle thinks the Federal Reserve has “lost control” and must limit how far they can increase interest rates. She sees risk in the “credit bubble” that could burst with aggressive interest rate hiking. She also thinks we are currently in a recession supported by the fact that the yield curve has inverted twice and forecasts for 0% GDP growth this year. Other factors that point to recession are an increase in auto delinquency, poor retail numbers, and worsening household debt. She expects home prices to fall this year, likely into summer. Danielle recommended hard assets, such as gold, as the ultimate inflation AND deflation hedge.
Peter also believes we are in a recession and maybe even a depression currently. He used the word “Depressflation” which suggests we could have depression-like economic growth on top of high inflation. He thinks the fed is “way behind the curve” and far higher interest rates would be necessary to curtail inflation. Peter seemed to have his doubts about the ability of the fed to do what’s needed to slow the inflation trend.
George commented on the power of understanding history in order to comprehend what is happening today. He said we “need a new monetary system” and that there is “no solution, only alternatives” given that US debt to GDP was 30% in 1970 and is 130% today. He also commented that the only thing holding our system today is “Faith” which makes it incredibly fragile. George also suggested that QE4 could be a future possibility, triggered by turmoil in the Japanese bond market.
According to Chris, “energy IS the economy”. So as oil goes, so goes the inflation. He stressed the “rate of change” as far more important than sustained high energy prices due to the shock to the system. He sees high prices as the cure for high prices and with the shortfalls in energy investment he believes high prices are here for a while.
Brien stated that “gold is money and everything else is credit”. He also believes that the federal reserve is trapped and cannot increase interest rates to an effective level. He also thinks negative interest rates are in our future. Brien believes metals, miners and tangible assets will protect you from a federal debt default.
We believe that investing in hard assets is the best way to weather economic changes. When you are ready, we can help you grow and preserve your wealth.